ChatGPT之父山姆·奥特曼关于AI和创业的30条思考

导读

INTRODUCTION

My work at OpenAI reminds me every day about the magnitude of the socioeconomic change that is coming sooner than most people believe. Software that can think and learn will do more and more of the work that people now do. Even more power will shift from labor to capital. If public policy doesn’t adapt accordingly, most people will end up worse off than they are today.

我在 OpenAI 的工作每天都在提醒着我，社会经济变化的严重程度比大多数人认为的要早。那些能够思考和学习的软件将会承担更多人类目前所从事的工作。随着越来越多的力量从劳动力向资本转移，如果公共政策不能相应地调整，那么大多数人的境况将比今天更糟。

Giving equity to employees is perhaps the key element to making startups work. it's amazing to me that some countries make this so hard (sometimes totally economically impractical) and then wonder why they don't have more successful startups.

为员工提供股权或许是让初创企业运转起来的关键因素。令我惊讶的是，有些国家让这变得如此困难（有时在经济上完全不切实际）。然后，我就想知道为什么他们没有更多成功的初创公司。

I have used it to learn things myself and found it much more compelling than other ways I've learned things in the past，I would much rather have ChatGPT teach me about something than go read a textbook.

我自己用它来学习东西，发现它比我过去学习的其他方式更有吸引力，我宁愿让 ChatGPT 教我一些东西而不是去读教科书。

I think whenever someone talks about a technology being the end of some other giant company, it’s usually wrong. I think people forget they get to make a countermove here, and they’re like pretty smart, pretty competent. I do think there’s a change for search that will probably come at some point — but not as dramatically as people think in the short term.

我认为，每当有人谈论某项技术将导致某个大公司倒闭时，通常都是错误的。人们似乎忘记了他们可以采取反制措施，并且他们通常都很聪明、很有能力。我认为搜索技术可能会在某个时刻发生改变，但不会像人们在短期内想象的那样戏剧性地改变。

This technological revolution is unstoppable. And a recursive loop of innovation, as these smart machines themselves help us make smarter machines, will accelerate the revolution’s pace. Three crucial consequences follow: 

1、This revolution will create phenomenal wealth. The price of many kinds of labor (which drives the costs of goods and services) will fall toward zero once sufficiently powerful AI “joins the workforce.” 

2、The world will change so rapidly and drastically that an equally drastic change in policy will be needed to distribute this wealth and enable more people to pursue the life they want. 

3、If we get both of these right, we can improve the standard of living for people more than we ever have before.

这场技术革命势不可挡。当这些智能机器又可以帮助我们制造更智能的机器时，创新的循环往复将加快这场革命的步伐。随之而来的是三个至关重要的后果： 

1. 这场革命将创造惊人的财富。一旦有足够强大的人工智能「加入劳动大军」，很多种劳动力的价格（驱动商品和服务的成本）将逐渐归零。 

2. 世界将发生翻天覆地的变化，因此我们需要同样颠覆性的政策变化来分配财富，从而使更多的人可以追求自己想要的生活。 

3. 如果我们把这两方面的工作做好了，就能将人类的生活水平提高到前所未有的状态。

A stable economic system requires two components: growth and inclusivity. 

Economic growth matters because most people want their lives to improve every year. In a zero-sum world, one with no or very little growth, democracy can become antagonistic as people seek to vote money away from each other. What follows from that antagonism is distrust and polarization. In a high-growth world the dogfights can be far fewer, because it’s much easier for everyone to win. 

Economic inclusivity means everyone having a reasonable opportunity to get the resources they need to live the life they want. Economic inclusivity matters because it’s fair, produces a stable society, and can create the largest slices of pie for the most people. As a side benefit, it produces more growth.

一个稳定的经济体系需要两个组成部分：增长和包容性。

经济增长很重要，因为大多数人都希望自己的生活每年都能得到改善。在一个经济没有增长或增长缓慢的零和社会中，民众将变得对立，因为人们会投票限制他人赚钱。这种对立带来的是社会中的失信和两极分化。在一个经济高速增长的世界里，人们互相之间的争斗可能会少得多，因为每个人都有机会积累财富。

经济包容性意味着每个人都有合理的机会，获得过上自己想要生活所需的资源。经济包容性之所以重要，是因为它是公平的，且能产生一个稳定的社会，并能为大多数人创造更大的饼。还有一个附加好处就是能产生更多的经济增长。

The technological progress we make in the next 100 years will be far larger than all we’ve made since we first controlled fire and invented the wheel. We have already built AI systems that can learn and do useful things. They are still primitive, but the trendlines are clear.

我们在未来100年取得的技术进步，将远远超过我们从最初控制火种到发明车轮以来所取得的一切成就。我们现在已经建立了可以通过学习来做有用事情的人工智能系统，尽管它们仍然处于原始阶段，但是发展趋势却是清晰可见的。

Compound growth gets discussed as a financial concept, but it works in careers as well, and it is magic.  A small productivity gain, compounded over 50 years, is worth a lot.  So it’s worth figuring out how to optimize productivity. If you get 10% more done and 1% better every day compared to someone else, the compounded difference is massive.

复利是金融领域的一个概念，但同样在职场上适用。每天提高一点点的效率，50年后的复利增长会让你大吃一惊。所以，现在花费一些时间了解如何提升效率是十分值得的。如果你每天能比别人多做10%的事情，精进1%，复利带来的积极效果将使你脱颖而出。

2023: $30,000 to get a simple iPhone app created, $300 for a plumbing job. i wonder what those relative prices will look like in 2028! the likely coming divergence between changes to cognitive work and changes to physical work could be quite dramatic.

在2023 年：用30,000 美元用于创建一个简单的 iPhone 应用程序，300 美元用于管道工程。我想知道这些相对价格在 2028 年会是什么样子！认知工作的变化和体力工作的变化之间即将出现的差异，可能会非常显著。

A big secret is that you can bend the world to your will a surprising percentage of the time—most people don’t even try, and just accept that things are the way that they are.People have an enormous capacity to make things happen. A combination of self-doubt, giving up too early, and not pushing hard enough prevents most people from ever reaching anywhere near their potential.

To be willful, you have to be optimistic—hopefully this is a personality trait that can be improved with practice. I have never met a very successful pessimistic person.

很多人都不知道，只要你足够坚持，世界就会以你的意志为转移。但大多数人甚至都不会去尝试，只单纯认为世界有其自身的运作规律。人的潜力是巨大的，只要敢想就能做成很多事。但大多数人都会怀疑自我、过早放弃，同时又不够努力，种种原因导致大多数人无法充分发挥自身潜能。

只有保持乐观才能足够坚定，而乐观这种性格特征是可以通过练习逐步提升的，要知道悲观者是很难成功的。

Most people are primarily externally driven; they do what they do because they want to impress other people. This is bad for many reasons, but here are two important ones.

First, you will work on consensus ideas and on consensus career tracks.  You will care a lot—much more than you realize—if other people think you’re doing the right thing. This will probably prevent you from doing truly interesting work, and even if you do, someone else would have done it anyway. Second, you will usually get risk calculations wrong. You’ll be very focused on keeping up with other people and not falling behind in competitive games, even in the short term.

The most successful people I know are primarily internally driven; they do what they do to impress themselves and because they feel compelled to make something happen in the world. After you’ve made enough money to buy whatever you want and gotten enough social status that it stops being fun to get more, this is the only force I know of that will continue to drive you to higher levels of performance.

大多数人主要都是靠外部驱动，他们做事情是为了让别人佩服。这种做法坏处颇多，但以下两点最为突出：

首先这会导致你人云亦云，因循守旧。在工作中，你会过于在意他人的看法，这种在意程度可能已经远远超出了你的意识。并且这会阻碍你从事趣味性工作，即使你正在做这样的工作，也不过是在炒冷饭。其次，这会让你误判风险等级。从短期影响来看，你会将注意力主要放在和他人的竞争上，以确保不会在竞争游戏中落后。

我认识的大多数成功人士都是靠自我驱动。他们做事情是为了让自己心悦诚服，因为他们觉得给世界带来改变是自己的责任。当你赚得盆满钵满并且拥有了较高的社会地位之后，金钱和名誉对你的吸引力开始逐渐消失，这时候内驱力就成为了唯一的动力，推动你向更高的地方攀登。

I think AI is gonna just seep In everywhere.my basic model of the next decade is that the marginal cost of inteligence and the marginal cost of energy are going to trend rapidly towards zero,like surprisingly far.And those I think are two of the major inputs into the cost of everything else except the cost of things we want to be expensive, the status goods whatever.when like the whole cost structure of society change which happened many times before.

我认为人工智能将渗透到各个方面。我对未来十年的基本模型是，智能和能源的边际成本会迅速下降，趋近于零。同时，智能和能源又是各行各业的主要成本来源。当然，那些我们想让它贵的东西除外，比如奢侈品等等。到那时，整个社会的成本结构都在下降，就像之前多次科技革命的结果一样。

My belief is that all repetitive human work that doesn't require the deep emotional connection between two people that will all be done in the next couple of decades better、cheaper and faster by AI. And that is somehow left out of the conversation.It's always about factory robots and self-driving cars.But what they dont talk about is all of the white-collar work that AI is going to do.

我坚信的是，所有不需要两个人之间深厚情感联系的重复性的人类工作都将在未来几十年内通过人工智能更好、更便宜、更快地完成。这在某种程度上经常被大家排除在谈话之外，人们总是喜欢说关于工厂机器人和自动驾驶汽车等人类被替代，但他们没有谈论的是AI将要做的所有白领工作。

OpenAI from a cold start a few years ago has managed to do the thing that i think is going to be incredibly important to the next many decades at least of society and how we all live our lives and what we do and what's possible. I have tried to hold myself to the stuff i really love which tends to be like the hard tech、years R&D、capital intensive or like sort of risky art like risky research and then. But if it works,it really works.

OpenAI从几年前冷门的启动无人问津，到今天能做到这样的事——我认为这将对未来几十年的社会，对我们的生活方式，我们所做的事情以及可能发生的事情都非常重要。我试图让自己坚持我真正喜欢的东西，这些东西往往是硬核技术，需要多年的研发，大量的资本投入或像冒险研究这样的冒险艺术等等。但是如果真的成功了，那就不得了。

One of the things we really believe is that the most responsible way to put this out in society is very gradually and to get people, institutions, policy makers, get them familiar with it, thinking about the implications, feeling the technology, and getting a sense for what it can do and can't do very early. Rather than drop a super powerful AGI in the world all at once.

我们非常相信的一件事情是，将这种技术引入社会的最负责任的方式是慢慢逐步进行的，让人们、机构、政策制定者逐渐熟悉它，思考其影响，感受技术，并且非常早期就了解它能做什么、不能做什么。而不是一下子在世界上引入一个超级强大的AGI模型。

Don’t chase status.  Status without substance doesn’t work for long and is unfulfilling. Do new things often.  This seems to be really important.  Not only does doing new things seem to slow down the perception of time, increase happiness, and keep life interesting, but it seems to prevent people from calcifying in the ways that they think.  Aim to do something big, new, and risky every year in your personal and professional life.

Don’t judge other people too quickly.  You never know their whole story and why they did or didn’t do something.  Be empathetic. The days are long but the decades are short.

不要追逐身份地位。空有身份地位而缺乏实质内容的东西长久来看是行不通的，也无法带来满足感。经常尝试新事物，这似乎非常重要。尝试新鲜事物不仅可以减缓时间的感知，增加幸福感，使生活更有趣，而且可以防止人们在思维方式上变得僵化。在你的个人和职业生活中，每年都要努力尝试一些重大、新颖和冒险的事情。

不要过快地对他人进行评判。你永远不知道他们的整个故事，以及他们为什么会做或不做某些事情。要有同理心。虽然每一天都可能会过得很漫长，但是时间往往飞逝，几十年的人生很快就会过去。因此，我们应该珍惜每一天，好好把握时间，或者用长远的眼光看待事物。